“From Blind Spots to Breakthroughs: Mastering the Art of Better Business Decisions”
Mark Twain famously said, “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” This quote is a stark reminder of how certainty, rather than ignorance, can often be the biggest obstacle to sound decision-making. In business, what you think you “know for sure” can blind you to new opportunities, make you resistant to change, and leave you vulnerable to errors in judgment.
This is where confirmation bias comes into play—a psychological trap that leads you to seek out information that supports your beliefs while ignoring evidence that contradicts them. It’s a natural tendency, but in business, it can have costly consequences. Think about a time when you were so confident in a product idea, marketing strategy, or operational decision that you ignored warning signs or feedback to the contrary. That’s confirmation bias in action, and it’s exactly what Mark Twain warned about.
To make better decisions, you need to go beyond what you think you know and explore what you might be overlooking. This is where the Awareness–Understanding Matrix becomes invaluable. Inspired by Donald Rumsfeld’s concept of knowns and unknowns, the matrix helps you categorise your knowledge and identify blind spots in your thinking.
By understanding what you know, what you don’t know, and—most importantly—what you don’t even realise you don’t know, you can approach decisions with greater clarity and adaptability.
In this blog, we’ll explore how misplaced certainty and confirmation bias affect decision-making. You’ll learn about the Awareness–Understanding Matrix and how it can help you navigate uncertainty, uncover hidden opportunities, and make smarter, more informed choices.
Whether you’re evaluating a new market, planning a product launch, or refining your business strategy, the tools and insights in this blog will help you question assumptions, challenge biases, and lead your business toward success.
1. Understanding Confirmation Bias.
Confirmation bias is one of the most common psychological traps in decision-making, and it can significantly impact the way you approach challenges and opportunities in your business. At its core, confirmation bias is the tendency to seek out, interpret, and remember information in a way that confirms your preexisting beliefs or assumptions while disregarding evidence that contradicts them.
While this might seem harmless at first, it often leads to flawed decisions, missed opportunities, and even long-term setbacks.
How Confirmation Bias Works.
When you believe something to be true, your brain naturally prioritises information that supports your belief. This might include seeking out articles, opinions, or data that validate your stance while ignoring evidence to the contrary. In decision-making, this bias can cause you to double down on incorrect assumptions rather than step back to consider alternative perspectives.
For example:
- Imagine you’re convinced that a particular marketing strategy is effective because it worked in the past. You might ignore declining engagement metrics or customer feedback that suggests otherwise, leading to wasted resources and missed opportunities to try something new.
The Impact on Business Decisions.
In a business context, confirmation bias can manifest in several ways:
- Ignoring Red Flags: You might overlook warning signs because they don’t align with your expectations. For instance, a new product might receive poor initial feedback, but you dismiss it, believing that customers will “come around.”
- Overconfidence in Assumptions: Believing your market research is flawless or your team’s instincts are infallible can blind you to critical errors or gaps in your plan.
- Resisting Change: If you’re certain your current approach is the best, you may resist innovations or shifts in strategy that could benefit your business.
Real-Life Examples.
- Kodak: The iconic photography company famously ignored the rise of digital cameras because it was convinced film would always dominate the market. By the time Kodak recognised the shift, competitors had taken over, and the company lost its market position.
- Blockbuster: Similarly, Blockbuster clung to its brick-and-mortar model, dismissing Netflix’s early forays into DVD rentals and streaming as insignificant. This certainty in their outdated approach ultimately led to their downfall.
Why You’re Vulnerable to Confirmation Bias.
Confirmation bias is deeply ingrained in human psychology because it simplifies decision-making and reduces cognitive dissonance (the mental discomfort caused by conflicting information). It’s comforting to believe we’re right, but in business, this comfort can come at a high cost.
How to Recognise and Challenge Confirmation Bias.
- Self-Awareness: Start by acknowledging that confirmation bias exists and can influence your decisions.
- Diverse Perspectives: Surround yourself with people who challenge your assumptions and offer alternative viewpoints.
- Data Over Instincts: Rely on objective data and analytics to guide your decisions rather than gut feelings or preconceived notions.
- Test Assumptions: Actively seek out evidence that contradicts your beliefs and consider it seriously before dismissing it.
Understanding confirmation bias is the first step toward better decision-making. By recognising when it’s at play and actively working to counteract it, you can make more balanced, informed decisions that set your business up for long-term success.
2. The Awareness–Understanding Matrix: Known Unknowns and Unknown Unknowns.
When it comes to decision-making, one of the greatest challenges is not just knowing what you know—but understanding what you don’t know and, even more critically, what you don’t realise you don’t know. This is where the Awareness–Understanding Matrix comes into play, inspired by Donald Rumsfeld’s famous observation about “known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns.” This framework helps you categorise your knowledge, identify blind spots, and avoid the pitfalls of misplaced certainty.
Breaking Down the Awareness–Understanding Matrix.
- Known Knowns
These are the things you’re fully aware of and understand. They include the skills, knowledge, and facts that you confidently rely on in your decision-making.- Example: You know your target audience prefers online shopping, and you’ve optimised your website accordingly.
- Challenge: Over-relying on known knowns can lead to complacency, as you may fail to question or update them over time.
- Known Unknowns
These are the things you know you don’t fully understand. They represent areas where you are aware of gaps in your knowledge or information.- Example: You know that artificial intelligence could improve your business operations, but you’re unsure how to implement it effectively.
- Opportunity: Recognising known unknowns allows you to proactively seek answers, conduct research, and build expertise in these areas.
- Unknown Knowns
These are things you unconsciously understand or do intuitively but haven’t explicitly recognised as knowledge. They often include untapped strengths or insights within your business.- Example: A team member who intuitively connects with customers might have valuable insights about customer preferences that haven’t been formalised.
- Action: By uncovering these unknown knowns, you can turn intuitive knowledge into actionable strategies.
- Unknown Unknowns
These are the most dangerous blind spots—things you don’t know exist and are unaware that you lack knowledge of. These often include emerging trends, disruptive innovations, or hidden risks.- Example: Blockbuster’s failure to recognise the threat of streaming services like Netflix is a classic example of unknown unknowns.
- Mitigation: Staying open to new perspectives, conducting regular market analysis, and fostering a culture of curiosity can help uncover these unknown unknowns before they become problems.
How the Matrix Links to Mark Twain’s Quote.
Mark Twain’s observation, “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so,” ties directly into the Awareness–Understanding matrix. Often, it’s not the known unknowns that cause the most damage—it’s the unknown unknowns and misplaced certainty in what you think you know. For example:
- A business might assume its pricing strategy is competitive without realising a competitor has launched a new, disruptive model.
- An entrepreneur might stick with a traditional marketing channel, confident it’s effective while missing the rise of a more efficient digital alternative.
Applying the Matrix to Your Decision-Making.
To use the Awareness–Understanding Matrix effectively:
- Assess Your Knowledge: Regularly evaluate your known knowns and question their validity.
- Identify Gaps: Actively seek out your known unknowns and develop strategies to address them through research, partnerships, or hiring experts.
- Uncover Strengths: Look for unknown knowns within your team by encouraging collaboration and reflection on what’s working intuitively.
- Embrace Curiosity: Stay vigilant for unknown unknowns by fostering a culture of learning and open-mindedness. Use tools like market analysis, customer feedback, and trend forecasting to uncover hidden risks and opportunities.
The Matrix in Action.
- Known Unknowns Example: A small business owner knows that e-commerce could boost sales but hasn’t yet explored how to integrate it into their business model. By addressing this gap, they can unlock significant growth potential.
- Unknown Unknowns Example: A retailer ignoring the growing popularity of “buy now, pay later” services could lose customers to competitors who adopt this payment model early.
The Awareness–Understanding Matrix is a powerful tool for making smarter decisions. By identifying and addressing gaps in your knowledge, you can avoid the dangers of misplaced certainty and make choices that position your business for long-term success.
3. The Danger of Certainty in Business Decisions.
Certainty in decision-making can feel reassuring. After all, having confidence in your choices seems like a strength. However, when certainty is built on unchecked assumptions or biased information, it becomes a liability. This is where Mark Twain’s quote—“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.”—rings true. In business, misplaced certainty can blind you to potential opportunities, emerging risks, and the evolving needs of your customers.
How “Certainty” Creates Blind Spots.
- Overconfidence in Past Successes.
Relying too heavily on what worked in the past can prevent you from seeing the need for change. Markets evolve, and strategies that succeeded before may no longer be effective.- Example: Kodak was certain that film photography would remain dominant, even as digital cameras gained popularity. Their overconfidence led to missed opportunities and a significant decline in market relevance.
- Resistance to Innovation.
Certainty often manifests as a reluctance to embrace new ideas or technologies. When you believe your current approach is the “right” one, you risk falling behind competitors who are more willing to innovate.- Example: Nokia’s confidence in its hardware-driven model led it to overlook the rise of software-centric smartphones like the iPhone.
- Ignoring Contradictory Data.
When you’re certain about your direction, it’s easy to dismiss feedback or evidence that challenges your assumptions. This creates blind spots that can have serious consequences.- Example: A business owner might ignore customer complaints about a product, assuming that sales figures alone indicate success. Over time, dissatisfaction could erode brand loyalty and hurt long-term growth.
Real-World Examples of Certainty Gone Wrong.
- Blockbuster’s Fall from Grace
Blockbuster was certain its brick-and-mortar model was unbeatable, despite the emergence of Netflix and digital streaming. Their confidence in the status quo prevented them from adapting, leading to their eventual bankruptcy. - BlackBerry’s Decline
BlackBerry dominated the mobile phone market with its keyboard-centric design but failed to recognise the growing demand for touchscreen devices. The certainty in its existing model caused them to lose ground against Apple and Android competitors.
Why Certainty Feels Comfortable (But Dangerous)
Certainty simplifies decision-making, providing a sense of control and stability. It reduces the discomfort of ambiguity and reinforces your confidence in your abilities. However, this comfort often comes at the expense of adaptability and critical thinking. When you cling to certainty, you may:
- Miss signals that indicate a need for change.
- Overestimate the strength of your position in the market.
- Resist feedback or alternative viewpoints.
How to Avoid the Trap of Certainty.
- Question Your Assumptions.
Regularly ask yourself: “What if I’m wrong?” Challenge the beliefs that guide your decisions and look for evidence to validate—or contradict—them. - Embrace Data and Feedback.
Use analytics, customer insights, and market research to guide your decisions. Let the data tell the story, even if it challenges your preconceptions. - Stay Open to Change.
Adopt a mindset of continuous learning and adaptability. View change not as a threat but as an opportunity to grow and evolve. - Encourage Diverse Perspectives.
Surround yourself with people who challenge your thinking and bring different viewpoints to the table. This can help you identify blind spots and make more informed decisions.
The Cost of Certainty in Business.
The danger of certainty lies in its ability to blind you to reality. When you’re too confident in what you “know for sure,” you risk making decisions based on outdated information or flawed assumptions. By recognising the limitations of certainty and actively questioning your beliefs, you can avoid these pitfalls and position your business for long-term success.
Certainty may feel safe, but adaptability and curiosity are what truly drive innovation and growth. Challenge what you think you know, and you’ll be better prepared to navigate the complexities of today’s business environment.
4. Identifying and Overcoming Bias and Blind Spots.
Biases and blind spots are inevitable in decision-making, but recognising and addressing them is essential for making smarter, more informed choices. Left unchecked, these mental traps can lead you to make decisions based on incomplete information, outdated assumptions, or misplaced confidence. By actively working to uncover and overcome these obstacles, you can improve your judgment and set your business up for success.
Common Biases and Blind Spots in Business Decisions.
- Confirmation Bias.
- This occurs when you seek out information that supports your existing beliefs while ignoring evidence that contradicts them.
- Example: A business owner might focus on positive feedback about a new product while dismissing critical reviews that highlight flaws.
- Overconfidence Bias.
- This bias leads you to overestimate your abilities or the accuracy of your knowledge, resulting in risky decisions.
- Example: A company might expand too quickly, assuming it can handle the scale without adequately planning for increased demands.
- Anchoring Bias.
- This happens when you rely too heavily on the first piece of information you encounter, even if it’s not the most relevant.
- Example: Setting pricing based on an outdated competitor’s rates rather than current market trends.
- Blind Spots from Familiarity.
- Familiarity can create blind spots, as you may overlook new opportunities or challenges simply because they’re outside your comfort zone.
- Example: Sticking with traditional marketing methods despite data showing your audience is more engaged on social media.
Strategies to Identify Bias and Blind Spots.
- Self-Awareness.
- Start by acknowledging that biases and blind spots exist and that they can influence your decisions.
- Regularly question your assumptions and ask, “What am I missing?”
- Encourage Constructive Debate.
- Surround yourself with a team that isn’t afraid to challenge your ideas. Encourage diverse perspectives and healthy debate to uncover potential blind spots.
- Tip: Assign someone to play “devil’s advocate” during decision-making meetings to surface alternative viewpoints.
- Use Structured Decision-Making Frameworks.
- Tools like the Awareness–Understanding Matrix, SWOT analysis, or the Six Thinking Hats method can help you systematically evaluate decisions and identify gaps in your thinking.
- Rely on Data, Not Gut Feelings
- Base decisions on evidence, such as customer feedback, market research, and performance metrics, rather than instinct or past experiences alone.
- Example: If you’re considering a new product line, analyse purchase trends and customer surveys before investing resources.
Overcoming Bias and Blind Spots.
- Seek Out Diverse Perspectives
- Bring in advisors, mentors, or consultants who can offer a fresh take on your challenges. Diversity in thought often reveals opportunities you might otherwise miss.
- Adopt a Growth Mindset
- View feedback and new information as opportunities to learn rather than threats to your current beliefs. This openness allows you to adapt and refine your approach over time.
- Run Experiments
- Test assumptions through small-scale pilots or trials before committing to large investments. Use the results to adjust your strategies and minimise risks.
- Example: If you’re unsure about a new pricing model, experiment with a segment of your audience before rolling it out broadly.
- Use Technology to Reduce Human Error
- Leverage tools like data analytics platforms, CRM systems, or AI-based insights to identify trends and patterns that might not be immediately obvious.
Examples of Overcoming Bias.
- Netflix’s Pivot
- Netflix initially started as a DVD rental service but recognised shifting consumer preferences for streaming. By challenging their assumptions and embracing customer feedback, they transitioned to a streaming model, dominating the market.
- Ford’s Customer-Centric Design
- Ford Motor Company faced declining sales in the early 2000s. Instead of assuming they knew what customers wanted, they conducted extensive customer research and redesigned their vehicles based on real needs, revitalising their brand.
Key Takeaways.
Biases and blind spots can derail even the most well-thought-out plans, but they’re not insurmountable. By fostering a culture of self-awareness, encouraging diverse perspectives, and relying on evidence-based decision-making, you can minimise the impact of these mental traps.
Regularly question your assumptions, test your ideas, and stay open to learning from unexpected sources. Doing so will not only improve your decision-making but also position your business for long-term success in a constantly changing world.
5. Lessons from Mark Twain and Rumsfeld: The Power of Questioning
Mark Twain’s timeless insight—“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.”—paired with Donald Rumsfeld’s concept of knowns and unknowns, highlights a profound truth about decision-making:
The key to success isn’t certainty; it’s curiosity and adaptability. By questioning your assumptions and exploring the unknowns, you unlock opportunities for innovation, growth, and resilience.
Reframing “What You Don’t Know” as an Opportunity.
Many people fear the unknown, equating it with risk and uncertainty. But in business, the unknown often represents untapped potential. Whether it’s a market trend you haven’t explored or a customer needs you haven’t identified, unknowns can become your greatest advantage—if you’re willing to pursue them.
- Example: Netflix questioned their reliance on DVD rentals, recognising a shift toward digital consumption. By exploring what they didn’t fully understand—streaming technology—they transformed the entertainment industry and became a global leader.
Questioning “What You Know for Sure”.
Certainty can be dangerous because it creates blind spots. When you’re confident in your assumptions, you may ignore evidence to the contrary or dismiss alternative perspectives.
- Examples of Misplaced Certainty:
- Kodak: They believed film photography would always dominate, even as digital photography gained momentum.
- BlackBerry: They were confident that physical keyboards were essential for smartphones, ignoring the rise of touchscreen devices.
The lesson? Regularly challenge what you “know for sure” by asking yourself:
- Is this assumption still valid?
- What evidence supports or contradicts it?
- How might this belief limit our growth or adaptability?
The Role of Curiosity in Driving Innovation.
Curiosity fuels discovery. By asking “what if” and “why not,” you open the door to new possibilities and solutions. Curiosity pushes you to explore unknown unknowns, uncovering hidden opportunities and challenges before they become critical.
- Practical Steps to Foster Curiosity:
- Host brainstorming sessions where no idea is off-limits.
- Encourage employees to ask questions and challenge processes.
- Explore trends and innovations outside your industry for inspiration.
- Example: Amazon’s obsession with curiosity drives its culture of experimentation. From developing AWS to launching Alexa, their willingness to explore uncharted territory has fueled exponential growth.
Embracing Rumsfeld’s Awareness–Understanding Matrix.
Donald Rumsfeld’s concept of “knowns and unknowns” pairs perfectly with Twain’s wisdom. Use the Awareness–Understanding Matrix to identify your blind spots:
- Known Knowns: Keep refining and updating your knowledge to stay relevant.
- Known Unknowns: Invest time and resources in researching these gaps.
- Unknown Knowns: Leverage team feedback to uncover hidden strengths or insights.
- Unknown Unknowns: Adopt a growth mindset to explore and anticipate emerging opportunities or threats.
Building a Culture That Embraces Questions.
To apply these lessons across your business, you need to foster a culture of enquiry and continuous learning. This means empowering your team to challenge assumptions, rewarding curiosity, and embracing uncertainty as a path to discovery.
- How to Foster a Questioning Culture:
- Create forums where employees can voice ideas and concerns without fear of criticism.
- Incorporate “What if?” and “Why not?” exercises into decision-making.
- Reward employees who uncover blind spots or identify opportunities through questioning.
- Example: Google’s culture of “20% time,” where employees can work on personal projects, has led to groundbreaking innovations like Gmail and Google Maps.
The Benefits of Questioning for Business Success.
- Improved Decision-Making: By challenging assumptions, you reduce the risk of costly mistakes.
- Enhanced Innovation: Curiosity leads to new ideas, products, and processes.
- Resilience to Change: Questioning what you “know for sure” helps you adapt to new realities more effectively.
- Long-Term Growth: Businesses that embrace uncertainty and exploration are more likely to thrive in dynamic markets.
Mark Twain and Donald Rumsfeld remind us of the power of questioning in navigating the complexities of business. Certainty may feel safe, but it’s curiosity, adaptability, and a willingness to explore the unknown that drives true success. By questioning your assumptions, challenging your biases, and using tools like the Awareness–Understanding Matrix, you can make smarter decisions and uncover opportunities that others miss.
In today’s fast-paced world, the ability to question “what you know for sure” is not just a competitive advantage—it’s a necessity. Start asking the tough questions, and you’ll pave the way for innovation, growth, and long-term success.
6. Building a Bias-Resistant Decision-Making Culture.
Creating a culture where bias is minimised and decisions are driven by evidence and critical thinking is essential for any business aiming to thrive in today’s dynamic environment. Biases and blind spots are part of human nature, but by fostering a culture that actively works to identify and counteract them, you can ensure better decisions at every level of your organisation.
Encourage Critical Thinking at All Levels.
Critical thinking isn’t just for leadership—it should be embedded throughout your organisation. Teach your team to approach decisions with a healthy dose of scepticism and a mindset of enquiry. This means questioning assumptions, exploring alternatives, and challenging conventional wisdom.
- Practical Steps:
- Offer training on decision-making frameworks like SWOT analysis or the Awareness–Understanding Matrix.
- Encourage team members to ask “why” and “what if” during meetings.
- Incorporate structured problem-solving sessions where different perspectives are actively sought.
- Example: A retail company faced declining foot traffic but assumed the issue was local competition. A critical-thinking exercise revealed that their outdated store layout was the real problem, leading to a successful redesign and increased sales.
Foster a Feedback-Rich Environment.
Feedback is one of the most powerful tools for uncovering biases and blind spots. Create open channels for feedback from employees, customers, and stakeholders to gain insights you might otherwise miss.
- How to Build a Feedback Culture:
- Hold regular feedback sessions where employees can share ideas or concerns without fear of reprisal.
- Use customer surveys and reviews to gather insights into your products, services, and operations.
- Actively respond to feedback to demonstrate that it’s valued and impactful.
- Example: A software company improved its user interface after analysing recurring customer complaints, leading to increased user satisfaction and retention.
Reward Curiosity and Adaptability.
One of the best ways to combat biases is to create an environment where curiosity and adaptability are celebrated. When employees feel empowered to explore new ideas and challenge existing norms, innovation flourishes.
- Encourage Curiosity:
- Offer “innovation days” where employees can work on projects outside their usual scope.
- Recognise and reward individuals who propose creative solutions or identify blind spots.
- Example: Google’s “20% time” policy allows employees to spend part of their workweek on passion projects, leading to innovations like Gmail and Google Maps.
Promote Diversity in Thought and Backgrounds.
Diverse teams are less likely to fall into the trap of groupthink because they bring varied perspectives to the table. By ensuring diversity in your workforce, you can better identify and address biases.
- How to Promote Diversity:
- Hire people from different professional backgrounds, industries, and cultural experiences.
- Encourage cross-departmental collaboration to leverage a range of expertise.
- Create an inclusive environment where all voices are heard and valued.
- Example: A marketing team struggling to connect with a younger audience hired a Gen Z intern, whose insights helped shape a successful social media campaign.
Incorporate Data-Driven Decision-Making.
Data helps remove emotion and bias from decisions, ensuring choices are based on facts rather than assumptions or gut feelings. Equip your team with the tools and training needed to analyse and act on data effectively.
- Using Data to Reduce Bias:
- Implement dashboards and analytics tools to track performance and trends.
- Train employees to interpret data accurately and avoid cherry-picking information that aligns with their preconceptions.
- Example: A startup used customer segmentation data to refine its advertising strategy, resulting in a 30% increase in ROI.
Celebrate Openness to Failure.
Innovation and growth often require taking risks, but fear of failure can stifle creativity and lead to overly cautious decision-making. By reframing failure as a learning opportunity, you create a culture that encourages experimentation and adaptability.
- How to Embrace Failure:
- Share lessons learned from failed projects to normalize the process of experimentation.
- Reward employees for taking calculated risks, even if the outcomes aren’t perfect.
- Example: A fashion brand piloted a sustainable clothing line that initially underperformed. By analysing customer feedback, they revamped the collection and successfully relaunched it, building a reputation for eco-conscious innovation.
The Benefits of a Bias-Resistant Culture.
- Smarter Decisions: A culture of critical thinking and data-driven decision-making ensures choices are well-informed and aligned with strategic goals.
- Greater Innovation: Encouraging curiosity and diverse perspectives leads to more creative solutions and opportunities.
- Resilience to Change: Teams that embrace adaptability are better equipped to navigate market shifts and emerging challenges.
- Enhanced Collaboration: Open communication and inclusivity foster stronger teamwork and a sense of shared purpose.
Building for the Future.
A bias-resistant culture isn’t created overnight—it requires commitment and consistent effort. By embedding critical thinking, encouraging feedback, and celebrating curiosity, you can create an organisation that not only avoids the pitfalls of bias but thrives on innovation and adaptability.
Start with small changes, such as incorporating diverse viewpoints in meetings or investing in analytics tools, and watch as your decision-making evolves into a strategic advantage.
Final Word.
Decision-making is one of the most critical skills in business, but it’s also one of the most challenging. As Mark Twain warned, “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” Coupled with Donald Rumsfeld’s insights on knowns and unknowns, it’s clear that success lies in questioning assumptions, uncovering blind spots, and staying open to new possibilities.
To thrive in today’s fast-paced world, you need more than intuition—you need tools, frameworks, and a culture that supports clear, bias-resistant thinking. By recognising and addressing confirmation bias, leveraging the Awareness–Understanding Matrix, and fostering a decision-making culture built on curiosity and adaptability, you’ll be equipped to make smarter, more strategic choices that drive your business forward.
Your Next Step.
Are you ready to elevate your decision-making skills and lead your business with clarity and confidence?
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Here’s what you’ll learn:
- How to recognise and overcome biases that cloud judgment.
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